Yealy Summary(3)

Ok,  I gave 8% back last week.  Here is the final number.

This year:

Good.
1. I've blogged for 5 years.  I've made money consistently for the last 5 years.
2. The market sense is pretty good.
3. Cutting loss. I manage the risk pretty good.
4. I always find a way to encourage myself.  :-)

What lesson do I learn?  (I need to review more of my notes before writing this, now I'm going to make breakfast.

1.
2.
3.

What do I need to work on?
1.
2.
3.


I've been sick all weekend so that I haven't reviewed anything yet. I don't plan to jump into a lot of trading before I finish my review.

Yearly summary(2)

Index	Week	December	Fourth quarter	2016
Dow	-0.9%	3.3%	7.9%	13.4%
S&P 500	-1.1%	1.8%	3.3%	9.5%
Nasdaq	-1.5%	1.1%	1.3%	7.5%
Russell 2000	-1.2%	2.5%	8.3%	19.4%

Although I lost money this week, I made money in December. More to come later.

Yearly summary(1)

What did you see from the following statistics? What could I learn from myself next year?

There are 14 weeks of lost  for this year.

Oh, well.

I've started with a losing month and end up with a losing week in 2016. I expect 7-8% loss this week.

The market makes me humble again.  Maybe it is a good thing.

I gave pretty much all gain back on the BExit week.  ( I was full positioned for the vote). I learned the lesson and closed the position at the President voting night so that I saved my ass during  the 700pts drop while we were waiting for the result. I responded  quickly enough afterwards to jump into long position to enjoy the most of the Trump rally.

Actually I've made more than my software engineer salary again this year with 82% gain. It is not bad after all. Actually it is better than last year.

More lesson to learn later.  Hope that I will learn more from my past mistakes.

I'm 100% sure

I'm pretty sure that I will have a losing week this week after the consecutive 7-week winning record.
Now I'm managing to minimize the loss. :-)

Merry Christmas!

I closed the position for my friend on Tuesday. All cash now.  I will start trading for her next year.

Here is my own account performance.

Emin SPX 60 min chart.

Another winning week.

  I didn't trade much.  I've adjusted my positions in the restaurants, in the airport, in the cars or even in the bathrooms when needed. :-).  When we were out of the country, I was already ready for the market.

 We are heading home tomorrow.  More update later.

Weekly review

Yeah, I'm on the east coast and didn't care about much the market

up and down. But my position still generated some income. I'm still in the hold mode. I have a lot of long position and a little bit hedge on the short side going to the next week. I will be on vacation next week. I will adjust the position if needed.

There is no much event next week.

Here is the update

Yesterday morning I got a text from my friend and she said that her account of $100,000 is ready.
I'm on the east coast for a business trip.  But it doesn't hurt to open positions for her .
I told her the money I make this year will be a gift to her.

Ha, it is $ 349 gain so far. Of course I have a bigger gain on my own account.

Next year.

I will trade for my friend for fun. She gave me an account of $100,000. I will post on a weekly basis how I do with that account.

I will do the same trade on her account, but with much smaller size.

Weekly review

 NQ: 4701-4897

ES:  2179-2261

Next week: Fed Wednesday. Quadruple Witching Friday.

 ESZ16 possible range: 2240-2270

 I did pretty good this week.  I closed all the short position  and added a lot of long position in the middle of Wednesday rally. I continued adding long position on Thursday and Friday.

 Yeah, we will have to pay a lot of taxes again next year.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	19170.42	19756.85	586.43	3.1	13.4
Nasdaq	5255.65	5444.50	188.85	3.6	8.7
S&P 500	2191.95	2259.53	67.58	3.1	10.5
Russell 2000	1314.25	1388.08	73.83	5.6	22.2

Event for the next two weeks

Weekly report

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	19152.14	19170.42	18.28	0.1	10.0
Nasdaq	5398.92	5255.65	-143.27	-2.7	5.0
S&P 500	2213.35	2191.95	-21.40	-1.0	7.2
Russell 2000	1347.20	1314.25	-32.95	-2.4	15.7

Happy Thanksgiving!

I closed the blog for a while since I had a new job and I didn't want to get distracted. But I still trade as I did before.

Here is the return YTD.

It is pretty much same as last year. I have up and downs.  But it was ok overall.  The last year the commission was around $6K,  the commission this year is over $10K already.

Next week

I will reduce 2 NQ  (I will sell 2 NQ contracts if it pops up) and 1(or 2) ES on Sunday.

It might be a boring week. Let's see. Range(2165 +/- 5 pts--- 2185 +/- 5 pts)

Vix 11.39  CNN fear and greed: 80 something.


Ok, Enough with the stock market crap. :-) Have a nice weekend.

Trade analysis and plan for next week.

NQ: I made $4200 out of $12098.

   I started with X contracts of NQ, but I sold X-1 number of calls. When NQ climbed to 4743 on Sunday night, I sold 1 NQ.

 Range on Monday. 4721-4760. I day trade some NQ.  (I have x-1 NQ with x-1 calls by the end of the day)



 Range on Tuesday 4682-4759. I added two longs 7:20 AM and 8:50AM, also sold calls at 8:44AM.

 Range on Wednesday:  4698-4729  No trade

 Range on Thursday 4,715-4747. I added more longs.

Range on Friday: 4742-4797.  I got up early for NFP report. I added long at around 4763 and unloaded most of them at 
4788/87.



 

On the other hand, I've held of my positions on ES until Friday.  I unloaded some on Thursday night since I don't want to bet two much on the job report.

But I will unload more on Sunday night. I was a little sick on Friday and didn't do the clear calculation on the numbers, As a result, I've held more positions than expected.






 

Weekly review

 I participated the most of Nasdaq rally.

Weekly Wrap for August 1, 2016

 

 (from briefing)

Last Update: 05-Aug-16 16:06 ET

The stock market entered Friday with a modest weekly loss, but a rally that developed in the wake of a better than expected Employment Situation Report for July (255,000; Briefing.com consensus 185,000) helped the S&P 500 log its fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks. The benchmark index added 0.4% for the week while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%) outperformed. Both indices marked fresh all-time highs on Friday.

Investors received another heavy dose of quarterly earnings, but the latest batch of results came from companies that had little market-moving cachet. At the end of the week, nearly 90.0% of S&P 500 components had reported earnings, showing a 3.5% decline in blended earnings, which was worse than the 3.2% contraction projected by FactSet.

In addition to earnings, investors received the latest policy statement from the Bank of England, which proved to be a dovish surprise. The central bank lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%, increased its purchase program to GBP435 billion from GBP375 billion, and announced it will buy up to GBP10 billion of corporate debt. The news pressured the pound into the 1.31 area against the dollar, but somewhat surprisingly, the stepped up easing efforts had little impact on global equity markets.

The S&P 500 advanced to a new record high on Friday after the Employment Situation report for July (255,000; Briefing.com consensus 185,000) beat estimates, showing above-consensus average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%). Over the past year, average hourly earnings have risen 2.6%, but rate hike expectations remain subdued with the fed funds futures market not pricing in a 50.0%+ chance or a rate hike until March 2017 (51.2%).

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	18432.24	18543.53	111.29	0.6	6.4
Nasdaq	5162.13	5221.12	58.99	1.1	4.3
S&P 500	2173.60	2182.87	9.27	0.4	6.8
Russell 2000	1219.94	1231.09	11.15	0.9	8.4

This week's P&L

 I did the most trading today for the week since the job report led broad rally for market.
What is the range for the next week? I need to review more later.

8/4/16 NFP tomorrow.

I haven't traded much since the range was way too small.  I just hold  whatever I have. I will do some adjustment tomorrow and post P&L over the weekend.

8/1/16 Monday

I bought more NQ position this morning.
 Chase high.

That is how I started this week

Pretty boring stuff. I will hold whatever I have for now.

This Week P&L

  I don't trade much. I just sit and wait.  The $SPX is pretty much flat but I'm pretty happy with my return. I reduced my position to whatever I had on Monday for the weekend.

 Since I work from home most of the time, I can summarize more of my trading style. I hold  position over the weekend.  I start to accumulate position around Tuesday until Thursday.
I day trade the options on Friday and also reduce the position size to the size similar to what I start on Monday. It has been this way for a while. Yeah, I have been winning since the week of Bexit. I had the positive P&L most of the weeks before the week of Bexit too.

 Am I ready for the next SPX's 100 point move? I think so at this moment.

 I need the market to make a move so that I can verify it.

 My YTD return is still much higher than SPX.

 I need to give myself credit about cut loss. I benefit from it greatly.

Weekly summary

The past week told the tale of three markets as the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8%, and the S&P 500 set an intraday record high, but finished the week essentially where it started (-0.1%).

Quarterly earnings were largely responsible for the differential in returns with the Nasdaq benefiting from upside surprises reported by heavyweights like Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Facebook (FB), and Celgene (CELG). Conversely, the Dow was pressured by weak results from ExxonMobil (XOM) and disappointing comparable sales results fromMcDonald's (MCD). The broader S&P 500 split the difference between the Dow and Nasdaq.

In addition to receiving a boatload of earnings, investors had to recalibrate their expectations for monetary stimulus from global central banks. The Federal Reserve made no changes to its policy stance and only hinted at the possibility of a rate hike in the near term. The central bank shared its lukewarm outlook on Wednesday, two days before the Friday release of the advance reading of second-quarter GDP, which missed estimates (1.2%; Briefing.com consensus 2.6%). Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan called for just slight adjustments to policy, undershooting market expectations for aggressive stimulus measures. The Japanese yen rallied in response, pressuring the dollar/yen pair to a two-week low near 102.00.

Rate hike expectations receded throughout the past week. Since last Friday, the implied probability of a rate hike in December, estimated by the fed funds futures market, declined from 47.8% to 33.0%. The fed funds futures market does not expect the Federal Reserve to depart from its current target range until after July 2017.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	18570.85	18432.24	-138.61	-0.7	5.8
Nasdaq	5100.16	5162.13	61.97	1.2	3.1
S&P 500	2175.03	2173.60	-1.43	-0.1	6.3
Russell 2000	1212.73	1219.94	7.21	0.6	7.4

Big picture..

NQ breaks out. ES is still in the middle. I chased NQ today.

Not much to write.

  I've pretty much repeated what I did before. When I control the position and risks, I've done very well.

 My return is higher than $SPX so far.

Next week

http://www.wenxuecity.com/groups/bbs.php?act=bbsview&gid=2684&basecode=994870

What happened on July 7th? (Lesson!)

I like to review my old trade for the last week. Yeah, I made money. But my entry on Thursday was horrible.  I added long positions before I posted it in the forum. Why did I do that? What happened if we didn't have rally on Friday?

If I followed what I always wanted to do,  "Take an action in the final hour if there is no trend on that day " and I would have collected a LOT more money!!!!!!!!

 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4055880.html

I can't complain it on Friday since I did pretty well. I chased at the opening and  closed some by the end of the day.

7/5/2016 Monday

Vix: 15.58

Expected Range: 2060+/-5 -- 2105+/-5. Last week Range:

1981-2101.

First Day down. There is more room to go down.

I will start a new job next week.  I feel good about it.

6/5/16

Maybe update here during the week. Then a weekly summary in the blog for now.

Weekly review and plan for next week.

I didn't trade much this week. I did most trading today. As I mentioned in my previous post, I thought the close would be weak. But it was not weak at all. So I adjusted my position and they are pretty neutral now.

There is not much to review since the range for the whole week is pretty small. It is not tradable for me. I'm surprised that I actually ended up with that much profit. I must have done something right.

I will post more market view for next week tomorrow or on Sunday. But I'm pretty busy this weekend so don't count on it. :-)

I also put my guess and my thought  here

PLAN :  Three weeks up.  We might see another week up. It might also be a boring week as well. Seriously speaking, my goal for next week is to not to lose money. I will be happy if the account balance stays exactly the same as it is today.

 

 Estimated Range: 2080+/-5 --2110+/-5. I will not add any short position before Thursday.  I will try to add some long positions at 2080  or lower if it gets there.

 

 

 

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	17873.22	17807.13	-66.09	-0.4	2.2
Nasdaq	4933.50	4942.52	9.02	0.2	-1.3
S&P 500	2099.06	2099.13	0.07	0.0	2.7
Russell 2000	1150.45	1163.36	12.91	1.1	2.4

6/3/16 Friday.

45 minutes to go until the end.

If the close > 2100 doing nothing.
else sell 5 es at the end.

I will review my trade over the weekend. I didn't expect the strong closing at the end.

Man,

I've made money again this week. Money is like paper.  :-)
No job offer yet.

5/31/16 Monday

The account is higher than it was on Friday.

This is how I started this week.

ES is up 3pts or so. My account is flat. It is pretty balanced.

Weekly summary and plan for next week!

My expected range: 2035--->2085. I also made comments that if I would not be surprised if it tried 2100,
The real range is 2041-2099. 

I need to go and will put more details later.

This is how I started this week: (If you are interested, you can follow me there. You just need to translate it). http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4032489.html
I normally only say a little words.

Next week:

RANGE：

２０７５＋／－５ －－ ２１０５＋／－５。  It is a short week. My goal is to not to lose money.   It might close down. Pull-back is imminent! It might start on Tuesday.  I have no bullish view about the week after next week also. 

I will only add long if ES is down to around 2065.

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	17500.46	17873.22	372.76	2.1	2.6
Nasdaq	4769.56	4933.50	163.94	3.4	-1.5
S&P 500	2052.23	2099.06	46.83	2.3	2.7
Russell 2000	1112.06	1150.45	38.39	3.5	1.3

Pull back is on the way,

  Check out how weak the strength was, especially today. As I said, if I closed everything on Monday, I would have made 3K. But I didn't. I ended up having 5 figure profit again. I hope that I can keep it.
I would be happy if I only made couple hundred next week.

  Vix & fear number all support the pull back. I reduced long position today. More summary tomorrow.

5/23/16

Comments:

  I really don't need to go back to work again.  I've already had 3K profit from last Friday. It is only Monday. :-)

But what can I do? I don't need to stare at the market. I don't want to clean the house all the time. :-)

Weekly trade summary and next week

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	17539.77	17500.46	-39.31	-0.2	0.4
Nasdaq	4718.89	4769.56	50.67	1.1	-4.7
S&P 500	2047.10	2052.23	5.13	0.3	0.4
Russell 2000	1102.30	1112.06	9.76	0.9	-2.1

My YTD returns so far.

Check out the commission I spent so far. It is a little bit high this year.

I already figured out what to do next week.

Weekly Summary.

My return is much higher. :-)

Index	Started Week	Ended Week	Change	% Change	YTD %
DJIA	17740.63	17539.77	-200.86	-1.1	0.7
Nasdaq	4736.16	4718.89	-17.27	-0.4	-5.8
S&P 500	2057.14	2047.10	-10.04	-0.5	0.2
Russell 2000	1114.72	1102.30	-12.42	-1.1	-3.0

Hmm.

 I bought one NQ contract as planned. I don't plan to buy more.   I will start to accumulate it as it goes.

I'm going to Europe.

   Haha... I decide to spend money before I pay the tax next year.  No one seems to have time and I will travel to Europe alone.  I'm leaving on May 4th.
 
  So I will spend more time study for the trip instead of the trading. I don't really want to travel alone. But it is better than staying home, isn't ? Last time I traveled alone was that I drove 8 days from Atlanta to Seattle more than 10 years ago. :-)

After AAPL released the earning.

Now I plan to buy dip on NQ tomorrow.